As the war in Ukraine continues well into its third month, Arlo Daly offers some background to the conflict, and considers what the future may hold for the besieged country and its citizens.
Most of us are shocked and appalled by the timing and scale of the invasion of Ukraine. Although there has been considerable separatist conflict in the far eastern Donbass region for almost a decade and Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, few expected a full-scale invasion. To summarise the most recent chapter of the conflict, it’s almost three months now since Russian president Vladimir Putin recognised the Ukrainian states of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent, and since the Russian offensive began, utilising air and rocket strikes, heavy armour units and of course well over a hundred thousand combat personnel. However the defensive positions of the Ukrainian military has held for the most part revealing many disturbing short-comings in the Russian invaders such as conscripted troops, obsolete equipment and untrained personnel. But that’s just a summary of the present, what of the future?
So far, there hasn’t been much progress in the talks and the prospects of this changing are going downhill with every atrocity uncovered.
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been happening in the allegedly neutral country of Turkey or Türkiye as they wish it to be called. Both combatant country’s foreign ministers have been aggressive in their stances which shows they are confident about their positions militarily. So far, there hasn’t been much progress in the talks and the prospects of this changing are going downhill with every atrocity uncovered, such as those in Bucha where hundreds of civilians ,including the entire male population there of fighting age, were found dead. Russia’s statements that Ukraine’s air strikes on Russian territory only hamper peace talks also display little desire for peace by the Kremlin and in some senses, Kyiv, at least until Russian forces have been forced off Ukrainian soil.
Most of the wider world would greatly appreciate a withdrawal of Russian forces due to the international effects of the war. It’s also important to remember the Kremlin’s reputation for promise-keeping and honesty. They’ve doctored photos to brainwash their public, they continue to state that no Russian soldiers have committed atrocities or war crimes, and they are yet to say that it’s even a war despite the casualties in the tens of thousands. Even if an agreement is recognised by both countries, we would be foolish to trust Putin’s regime to follow it to the letter. However, it’s important to know what this agreement might include.
…an important part of Russia’s demands is that Ukraine remain neutral, meaning they can’t ally themselves militarily with other countries while the agreement remains in place.
The Kremlin has stated that Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is a security risk for its citizens and borders. What they’re insinuating is simply that once Nato borders Russia from Ukraine, they will be able to launch an invasion more easily. There is a flaw in this logic, as all three of the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) are part of the alliance, and Russia only meekly stated that NATO promised those countries wouldn’t join. Either way, an important part of Russia’s demands is that Ukraine remain neutral, meaning they can’t ally themselves militarily with other countries while the agreement remains in place.
Another recent demand of Russia’s was that Ukraine be “de-nazified”. Their reasoning was that the country oppresses its Russian speaking populace although there is no evidence to verify that, aside from statements by the reformed Ukrainian government in 2014 about ending the Russian languages status as a national one in several areas including Crimea. But, the now influential Azov Battalion which, until Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a civilian militia, has many Neo-Nazi members and other far-right anti-Russian fighters. Their 900 to 1500 strong unit is based in the heavily bombarded coastal city of Mariupol which the Russian forces have been keen on capturing, keen enough to destroy whatever they couldn’t take. More than 80% of the city has been demolished by airstrikes and artillery bombardment, a common but ineffective tactic in Russian offensives, witnessed in Syria, Afghanistan and Chechnya when Russian soldiers were involved in conflicts there.
Contradictory to their ‘de-Nazification’ objectives, Russia has taken to hiring private contractor groups to fight, such as the Wagner group, a Neo-Nazi group themselves. In declaring neutrality, recognising Russia’s ownership of Crimea and possibly giving up the Donbass region, Ukraine will be promised peace from their eastern neighbours and will be free to govern themselves. In other words, Ukraine will bribe Russia to stop attacking them and promise not to get help from anyone else should Russia decide to attack again. Not an attractive or realistic deal, especially when Ukraine’s armed forces are holding off the vast majority of Russian offensives.
But have hope for Ukraine as well. From a geographical perspective, the Russian army has become dangerously routed in many places, cut off from supplies of petrol, food and ammunition, and the troops themselves have terrible morale and leadership leading to desertion and insubordination.
It’s regrettable that this must be said but Russia’s unbacked claims, contradictory messaging, and obviously southern-focused offensive leads anyone sane to understand that this is a land grab and not a matter of ensuring “peace and security” as they have told us. So, be very sceptical of the contents of any agreements between the countries. But have hope for Ukraine as well. From a geographical perspective, the Russian army has become dangerously routed in many places, cut off from supplies of petrol, food and ammunition, and the troops themselves have terrible morale and leadership leading to desertion and insubordination. By taking on foreign contractors from the Wagner group and Syria, Russia has shown they’re not confident in their own , while Ukraine’s shows unique resilience, self-determination, and experience from the Donbass war.
To those Ukrainians who have recently entered our school, we would like to say to you all, welcome, and to tell you that you have our utmost respect and sympathy, and our support for however long you need it. We hope you enjoy your time in our school and that your country gets through the struggle and recovers well. Slava Ukraini!